As UK holiday-makers look ahead to the summer, the travel industry is managing well with higher costs, capacity challenges, and inflationary pressures. But depsite increased prices for flights and holidays, astute travellers may still find some good last-minute holiday deals, especially outside peak travel periods.
Why are costs higher in 2025?
Several factors have contributed to rising travel costs:
Inflation
Persistent inflation since early 2022 has driven up operational costs for airlines and tour operators. Fuel prices, staffing costs, and airport charges have all increased, leaving operators little room to absorb expenses without passing them on to consumers.
Capacity Constraints
Aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing continue to face delays in delivering new planes. This has been caused by supply chain issues arising in the pandemic and, in Boeing’s case, reputational concerns over safety. As a result, many airlines have been unable to expand their fleets as planned, keeping seat availability tight – an opportunity they have embraced.
Careful Capacity Management
Airlines intentionally limit seat capacity to ensure flights are full, maximizing profitability. This strategy reduces the likelihood of last-minute discounts, particularly for scheduled flights.
Scheduled airlines: fewer last-minute holiday deals expected
Scheduled airlines, including British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, have carefully managed seat capacity for 2025. With planes flying near full capacity, fare reductions are unlikely so don’t hold your breath for last minute holiday deals. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected steady growth in passenger demand, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. This demand, combined with limited fleet expansion, keeps prices firm.
Mass market operators: a mixed picture
Tour operators like TUI and easyJet holidays have enjoyed profitable years in 2023 and 2024, giving them confidence to maintain higher pricing.
TUI
TUI has announced an additional 300,000 seats for the UK market in 2025, tied closely to their package holidays. Winter sun packages to destinations like Cape Verde now start at £625 per person, compared to £575 in 2024.
EasyJet Holidays
EasyJet is increasing capacity by 10% in the UK, adding approximately 5 million seats, with significant growth in its package holiday business. Its packages, often bundled with accommodation commitments, show prices for short-haul summer holidays (e.g., Malaga) starting at £799 per person, compared to £729 in 2024.
A softer market than expected? Possibly, especially outside peak times
While peak seasons are likely to sell well, there are indications that demand may soften during shoulder and off-peak periods. The UK government’s recent budget has left many households cautious about discretionary spending, including on holidays.
This creates potential opportunities for last-minute holiday deals. Operators are often locked into accommodation contracts and need to keep planes full to maintain profitability. While early booking incentives have been the primary focus, unsold seats closer to departure dates usually prompt targeted discounts.
Where to find last-minute holiday deals
Although widespread discounts are unlikely, here’s how you can maximise your chances of securing a bargain:
Flexibility
Be open to travelling midweek, off-season, or to less popular destinations. Usually, very early or very late flight times are also cheaper. Look out for deals in the shoulder seasons – those few weeks before and after the peak periods, particuarly where they merge into a low season.
Monitor Sales
Keep an eye on operators like Ryanair and easyJet, which frequently release flash sales to fill under-booked flights.
Package Holidays
Man tour operators, such as TUI and Jet2holidays, discount unsold packages closer to departure dates.
Secondary Airports
Look for departures from regional airports, which sometimes have less demand and lower prices than larger hubs.
Leverage school holidays
Flight seat and holiday pricing is carefully pitched to track school holidays and half terms, which vary between region and nation. If you live in England but within reach of Edinburgh, Glasgow or Cardiff you might get a cheaper deal by crossing the border when their schools are back but not those where you live, or vice versa.
Conclusion? Be patient and strategic
While the overall trend for 2025 points to higher prices, travellers willing to adapt their plans can still find value. Peak seasons and popular destinations will command a premium, but off-peak and shoulder travel offers the chance to save. For those who can afford to wait, keeping an eye on last-minute holiday deals might just pay off.
By Declan Morton, writer and editor at Essiell Ltd and Money4Travel.
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